OBJECTIVES: Products which act on biological pathways common to multiple diseases (such as immunotherapies) frequently broaden their patient population as additional indications are approved. These approvals trigger HTA price negotiations and often result in price reductions. A price predictor was created to predict the price benchmark of products with an upcoming launch in Germany.

METHODS: Germany was used as the base case market and the predictor utilized historic price changes and G-BA data from five analogues (mepolizumab, tofacitinib, secukinumab, upadacitinib, and dupilumab) with data collected from product launch to February 2023. The predictor modelled both the impact of population size increase and G-BA additional benefit rating associated with the new indications. The results of the analogue analysis were applied to three comparator treatments (dupilumab, upadacitinib, and baricitinib), utilizing their likely upcoming indication expansions (sourced from ClinicalTrials.gov) to predict the percentage price reduction expected by the time of the hypothetical product launch in 2027.

RESULTS: The biggest driver of price erosion following indication expansion was the G-BA benefit assessment of the novel indication. With products demonstrating an additional benefit in the new indication more resilient to price erosion, irrespective of change in population size. For indications not demonstrating an additional benefit, an increase in patient population size (associated with the new indication) positively correlated with a greater reduction in price. Utilizing the results of the analogue analysis, the price predictor predicted reductions in price for dupilumab, upadacitinib, and baricitinib by 2027.

CONCLUSIONS: The price predictor can be used to provide price corridors for treatments launching in markets which use price benchmarking. Further development of the predictor will look to broaden the data pool included in the analogue analysis and validate the assumptions with payers.