OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of adjuvant Atezolizumab (ATZ) in preventing the recurrence of early non-small cell lung cancer (eNSCLC) in 5 European countries (EU5).

METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model to estimate the reduction in locoregional (LR) recurrences or distant metastases (DM) after adjuvant ATZ treatment following chemotherapy in operable stage II-IIIA patients with PDL-1 ≥ 50% NSCLC, without EFGR mutant or ALK positive, NSCLC (PDL1 high eNSCLC). We use cancer registries, published literature sources, and market research to obtain incidence rates, staging distribution, biomarker status data, and adjuvant treatment rates. Moreover, we use evidence on the disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) of patients on adjuvant ATZ from the IMpower010 (NCT02486718) clinical trial to calculate the projected reduction in the number of LR recurrences or DM over a 10-year period post-ATZ launch relative to best supportive care (BSC).

RESULTS: We projected that between 2022 and 2032, 16,255 patients will experience recurrence (LR, or DM, or both) of PDL1 high eNSCLC in the EU5. Assuming peak ATZ uptake of 75% (range 50% -100%), the model estimates that following adjuvant ATZ in combination with chemotherapy 3,845 (2,563-5,127) recurrences would be prevented among PDL1-high NSCLC patents in the EU5 over 10 years, a 23.7% (15.8%-31.5%) decrease in recurrence relative to BSC.

CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant ATZ following chemotherapy results in population-level reduction of PDL1 high eNSCLC locoregional recurrence or distant metastasis. Further research will assess the impact of this clinical improvement on economic and societal burden associated with the recurrent NSCLC.