The Potential Clinical Impact of the Moderna Next-Generation COVID-19 mRNA-1283 Vaccine in United States (US) Adults
Author(s)
Michele Kohli, MSc, PhD1, Michael Maschio, MSc1, Kelly Fust, MSc1, Amy Lee, PhD1, Keya Joshi, PhD2, Stephen Kissler, PhD3, Nicolas Van de Velde, MBA, MSc, PhD2, Ekkehard Beck, MSc, PhD4;
1Quadrant Health Economics Inc, Cambridge, ON, Canada, 2Moderna, Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA, 3Episight LLC, Boulder, CO, USA, 4Moderna, Munich, Germany
1Quadrant Health Economics Inc, Cambridge, ON, Canada, 2Moderna, Inc, Cambridge, MA, USA, 3Episight LLC, Boulder, CO, USA, 4Moderna, Munich, Germany
OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 associated disease burden continues to significantly impact US adults, particularly older adults (≥65 years) who are at higher risk for severe disease. The study aimed to estimate the clinical impact of a hypothetical one-dose Fall 2024/2025 Moderna mRNA-1283 vaccine campaign in US adults ≥18 years, compared to no Fall vaccination or a campaign with the updated BNT162b2 vaccine. Analyses examined the impact of a 10% relative increase in vaccination coverage rates (VCR) in adults ≥65 years.
METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was adapted to predict COVID-19 incidence during the 2024/2025 season. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2023/2024 season data were used for calibration and predictions, including age-specific COVID-19 hospitalizations, in-hospital mortality rates and VCR. mRNA-1283 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization was estimated considering the relative VE (rVE) of mRNA-1283 vs mRNA-1273 based on clinical trial data and 2023/2024 real-world VE for mRNA-1273. rVE for mRNA-1283 vs BNT162b2 was estimated using an indirect treatment comparison.
RESULTS: Without a Fall 2024/2025 updated vaccination campaign, 770,000 and 550,000 US hospitalizations among adults 18+ and 65+ were predicted to occur, respectively. In comparison, a Fall 2024/2025 updated mRNA-1283 campaign was estimated to reduce hospitalizations by 260,000 and 200,000 among adults 18+ and 65+, respectively. Compared to a Fall 2024/2025 BNT162b2 campaign, mRNA-1283 vaccination reduced hospitalizations by 100,000 and 70,000 in the 18+ and 65+ populations, respectively. With a 10% increase in VCR among adults 65+, mRNA-1283 would prevent an additional 9,000 and 2,000 hospitalizations in those 65+ compared to no vaccination and BNT162b2, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest a Fall 2024/2025 updated mRNA-1283 vaccine campaign could significantly reduce hospitalizations, particularly among US adults 65+ compared to no vaccination or updated BNT162b2 vaccination. The findings underscore the importance of continued efforts to increase COVID-19 VCR to maximize these clinical benefits.
METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was adapted to predict COVID-19 incidence during the 2024/2025 season. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2023/2024 season data were used for calibration and predictions, including age-specific COVID-19 hospitalizations, in-hospital mortality rates and VCR. mRNA-1283 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization was estimated considering the relative VE (rVE) of mRNA-1283 vs mRNA-1273 based on clinical trial data and 2023/2024 real-world VE for mRNA-1273. rVE for mRNA-1283 vs BNT162b2 was estimated using an indirect treatment comparison.
RESULTS: Without a Fall 2024/2025 updated vaccination campaign, 770,000 and 550,000 US hospitalizations among adults 18+ and 65+ were predicted to occur, respectively. In comparison, a Fall 2024/2025 updated mRNA-1283 campaign was estimated to reduce hospitalizations by 260,000 and 200,000 among adults 18+ and 65+, respectively. Compared to a Fall 2024/2025 BNT162b2 campaign, mRNA-1283 vaccination reduced hospitalizations by 100,000 and 70,000 in the 18+ and 65+ populations, respectively. With a 10% increase in VCR among adults 65+, mRNA-1283 would prevent an additional 9,000 and 2,000 hospitalizations in those 65+ compared to no vaccination and BNT162b2, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest a Fall 2024/2025 updated mRNA-1283 vaccine campaign could significantly reduce hospitalizations, particularly among US adults 65+ compared to no vaccination or updated BNT162b2 vaccination. The findings underscore the importance of continued efforts to increase COVID-19 VCR to maximize these clinical benefits.
Conference/Value in Health Info
2025-05, ISPOR 2025, Montréal, Quebec, CA
Value in Health, Volume 28, Issue S1
Code
EPH90
Topic
Epidemiology & Public Health
Topic Subcategory
Public Health
Disease
STA: Vaccines