OBJECTIVES: The metabo-reno-cardiovascular-disease-model (MRCDM) is a patient-level model with individuals with or without diabetes (type 1 or 2), obesity (defined by BMI), CVD or chronic kidney disease. It was developed to predict the risk of complications and mortality in these individuals. To predict the risk of mortality in type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Western countries, different approaches are available: Swedish National Diabetes Registry (SweNDR) and Scottish Registry Linkage (SRL). The aim of this abstract was to validate the predictions of life expectancy (LE) in individuals with T1D using the two approaches.

METHODS: The model was populated with both Swedish and Scottish specific baseline characteristics. Country specific CVD and mortality algorithms were employed. EDIC risk factor progression equations were used. Predicted and observed LE were compared depending on the age of diagnosis of diabetes. A lifelong time horizon was applied.

RESULTS: In Sweden, for individuals diagnosed with T1D between 21-25 years old, the observed total LEs were 74.6 years. The MRCDM, applying SweNDR mortality and CVD equations, predicts a total LE of 73 years. In Scotland, for individuals diagnosed with diabetes between 20-24 years old, the observed LE was 69 years. The MRCDM, applying SRL mortality and CVD equations, predicts a LE of 68 years.

CONCLUSIONS: For both Sweden and Scotland, the MRCDM predicts similar LE when compared with the observed LE, with a variation of 2-3%.