OBJECTIVES: The number of people who died from a drug overdose in 2021 was over six times the number in 1999 in the US. The total drug-related overdose mortality in California rose by 22% from 2020 to 2021, with over 50% being attributed to fentanyl. The opioid overdose has been reported to cost the state approximately $25 billion. Thus, it is essential to identify factors that are associated with drug overdose deaths in California. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the predictors of overdose deaths in California.

METHODS: We compiled data by county in California from 2021 on overdose death rate (California Department of Public Health), median age (Federal Reserve Bank Economic Research), poverty rate (U.S. Department of Health & Human Services), unemployment rate, median household income, and percent of people having college education (Economic Research Service). Descriptive statistics and a linear regression model were employed to identify the predictors of overdose death rate.

RESULTS: Descriptive statistics showed overdose death rate mean and standard deviation of (32.31, SD= 18.32), median age (39.88, SD=6.11), poverty rate (8.99, SD=3.62), unemployment rate (7.35 , SD=2.09), median household income ($75,295.43, SD=21,888.07), and percent of people having college education (28.54, SD=12.26). Among the independent variables, age and poverty rate were significantly (respectively p=0.021, p=0.035) associated with overdose death rate.

CONCLUSIONS: This study found the sociodemographic factors of age and rate of poverty as significant predictors of the drug overdose death rate in California. Recognizing these determinants may support the development of evidence-based measures to mitigate the drug overdose crisis in the state and help appropriate scarce economic resources.