OBJECTIVES: To predict the impact on national healthcare security fund expenditures after the inclusion of Blinatumomab in the basic medical insurance catalog, and to provide relevant recommendations for the development of reasonable medical insurance access decisions and medical insurance drug management policies.

METHODS: A budget impact analysis model was developed from the perspective of healthcare payers to predict the impact on national healthcare security fund expenditures within 3 years after the inclusion of Blinatumomab in the basic medical insurance catalog, using 2020-2021 as the baseline year. The variables included target population, market share of treatment options, costs, medical insurance reimbursement rates and per capita medical insurance expenditure. Data were from phase III clinical trial results, literature, and electronic and medical insurance databases.

RESULTS: After the inclusion of Blinatumomab in catalog, the annual basic medical insurance expenditure was 122.9, 182.5, and 194.9 million RMB in 2022-2024, respectively. Compared with non-inclusion, the net increase in total amount of basic medical insurance expenditure during 2022-2024 was 14.9, 73.2, and 84.5 million RMB, respectively, adding up to 172.6 million RMB. The results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that chemotherapy treatment period, the drug price, market share, and medical insurance reimbursement rate of Blinatumomab had a greater impact on baseline outcomes. The study included baseline analysis and one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS: The innovative clinical value of Blinatumomab has brought new treatment options and better health benefits to patients, meeting kind of the drug needs of adult R/R BCP-ALL patients. The results showed that with the rapid increase of market share of Blinatumomab after its entry into catalog, the drug and total treatment costs of medical insurance expenditures on Blinatumomab will increase significantly over the future three years. In addition, its price and reimbursement rate setting will also have a large impact on the outcome of medical insurance expenditures.