OBJECTIVES: Each winter in the UK, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) cause approximately 175,000 people aged 65 years and older (YOA) to see their GP, 14,000 are hospitalised and a further 8,000 would die. Currently, there is no prophylactic vaccine or antiviral treatment for RSV available for this elderly population. This study aims to provide preliminary insights on the potential public health impact of the Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine candidate in subjects ≥65 YOA in the UK.

METHODS: A dynamic transmission model for RSV was adapted to the UK setting and followed subjects ≥65 YOA over a 20 year-time horizon to compare the public health impact of the Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein vaccine versus no vaccination. Demographic and epidemiologic data were derived from UK specific sources and published literature. The vaccine efficacy was based on clinical trial data and waning rates were assumed in subsequent years. The model was calibrated to digitised data originating from the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS). Outcomes included RSV symptomatic infections averted, reduction of RSV-related GP cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

RESULTS: Assuming a 75% coverage rate in the base-case scenario, a RSV vaccination programme with Ad26.RSV.preF/RSV preF protein targeting individuals ≥65 YOA is predicted to reduce the number of symptomatic RSV infections, GP cases and severe disease outcomes (e.g. hospitalisations and deaths) by at least 45% compared to no vaccination (from a single model fit). Additional model development may help to provide further insights and confirm these results.

CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary insights suggest a substantial impact of vaccination on the burden of RSV infections in subjects ≥65 YOA in the UK. If confirmed, the programme could be an important public health intervention in alleviating undue pressures on the NHS during RSV seasons. Timely policy for the use of RSV adult vaccines as they become licensed for use and available could be critical.