Beyond "Guesstimates" in Long-Term Survival Extrapolation: Introducing a Comprehensive Step-By-Step Elicitation Framework

PURPOSE: This workshop aims to discuss best practices and challenges in expert elicitation for long-term survival estimates. We will present a comprehensive, step-by-step elicitation framework, providing attendees with essential practical knowledge of this method, its benefits, and implementation considerations. Perspectives from industry and health technology assessment (HTA) agencies will also be discussed.

DESCRIPTION:

Estimating long-term survival in the absence of data is a persistent challenge in economic modelling for HTA and a common source of uncertainty within decision making. Expert elicitation is recommended in the NICE Methods Guide to bridge this data gap, and obtaining clinical experts' judgments has become standard practice for assisting in survival extrapolation. The ISPOR Structured Expert Elicitation (SEE) Task Force is currently developing guidance on SEE for healthcare decision-making. However, existing elicitation methodologies often result in estimates perceived as mere "guesstimates," which undermines confidence in these expert-elicited values.

To address this critical methodological gap in HTA, we will provide an interactive demonstration of a novel elicitation framework for long-term survival estimates. This framework enhances the credibility, accuracy, consistency, and transparency of expert judgments.

Min-Hua Jen will provide an overview of current approaches for eliciting long-term survival, highlighting limitations and practical challenges (10 minutes). Jacoline Bouvy will introduce NICE's expectations for incorporating SEE in survival outcomes and its envisioned use in HTA submissions (10 minutes). Kate Ren and Jessica Forsyth will present a rigorous elicitation framework for long-term survival estimates. A live demonstration using a recent case study will be conducted, with polls used to gather input for the demonstration (30 minutes). Finally, the panel will discuss the application of the framework, followed by a Q&A session (10 minutes). This interactive workshop will be valuable for researchers and industry analysts interested in conducting formal expert elicitation for long-term survival estimates.